In the current society in which we live now, it is pretty easy to gather a lot of information about everything that happens in the world. This means that one can also find a lot of information about sports betting, especially sport betting tips. However, the most bettors are not profitable in the long term. This is because the most betting tipsters one can find on the internet do not have a positive expected value. Therefore, it is essential to be very critical when choosing a betting advice service.
As we mentioned earlier, finding value in betting is the most important requirement if you want to become a profitable sports bettor in the long term. With that being said, there is not one best way to find these ‘value bets’. If a tipster thinks that a certain odd contains value, there may be several reasons for him to come to this conclusion. In our opinion, one should qualify a betting tipster on the basis of the criteria outlined below.
One of the most important things a bettor should pay special regard to in the search of a tipster or betting services is the track record of past results. Although past results do not guarantee the same or better results in the future, they can give a clear picture of what a certain tipster is capable of.
Over a small sample size of bets, variance may have a dominating impact on a tipster’s results, both negative and positive. Due to this variance, anyone is capable of achieving great results in the short term due to luck, but a clueless tipster will run out of luck sooner or later. On the other hand, a good tipster or valuable betting services distinguish themselves by making profit over a significant amount (or big statistical sample) of bets. For example, if a tipster or betting service has managed to end up in profit many consecutive months, while also giving a large amount of tips per month, this is a strong indicator that they know what they are doing. From a statistical point of view, this means that luck or misfortune is replaced with pure skill. And the very same statistical principles tell us: a skilled tipster and betting service that know how to find value in the betting market, will surely be profitable in the end.
Pinnacle’s closing line
When it comes to pre-match betting picks, which we provide here at Transparent Bets, the closing line of the most efficient bookmaker (Pinnacle) is a great indicator of the real value of a pick. Research has shown that Pinnacle’s vig (or margin)-free odds accurately predicted the real world outcome 99.7% of the time for bigger competitions, which is something we elaborated further on in our article: how do bookmakers make profit?
Why is the closing line of Pinnacle efficient?
One can compare this with the law of supply and demand. When a bookmaker opens a market, the odds of each outcome are calculated based on several statistical models related to the team’s previous performances. When the market opens, players can bet on all these different outcomes. As a result, the bookmakers (based on the principle of ‘wisdom of the crowd’) constantly adjust the odds to maintain a balanced book. The odd just before the start of a certain match is called the closing line and normally reflects all statistics and information. Therefore, this is the most efficient point of the market and reflects the most accurate representation of the underlying probability.
Guaranteed long-term profit
Now, if a betting tipster is able to beat the closing line of Pinnacle consistently, this is a clear indicator of long term profit. In this case, the bettor places bets at odds that don’t represent the real chance of a specific outcome accurately, but are actually in their favor.
Due to the law of large numbers and probability theory, placing enough of these value bets, will guarantee that you make a profit in the long run. You can read more about this on our blog, as we have covered the concept variance in sports betting in greater detail.
Pinnacle’s closing line, the hoily grail, or not?
Although the closing line of Pinnacle predicts the real world outcome of an event very accurately most of the time, it isn’t the holy grail. Or at least not on its own. Beating the closing line consistently will get you a solid profit in the long run, but this doesn’t mean that a tipster cannot be profitable in the long run when he doesn’t beat the closing line significantly. The closing line contains the most efficient odds, on average. However, there may be tipsters or betting services who are able to find some closing odds that might not represent the true probability. And use it in their (and their subscriber’s) favor.
Transparent Bets, trustworthy valuable betting services
With the current situation of questionable betting tipsters and tipster services in the industry all around, we at Transparent Bets feel it is time to offer bettors a stable and, above all, trustworthy alternative. Therefore we’ve come up with a professional valuable betting service that actually does keep its promise and achieves to have a satisfied client base day month after month and year after year.
You might wonder why we would share our methods and bets when they are profitable. Why don’t we just keep them to ourselves, right? There are actually several reasons for that and you can read more about why we share our valuable methods with our customers in our blog.
As Transparent Bets, we are confident to say that our service, in relation to the betting picks we provide to our customers, easily meets all the criteria mentioned in this article, and now we invite you to come see it for yourselves.