If you ask Google to search for ‘betting tipsters’, it will return millions of hits. One can find lots of information about sports betting, especially sport betting tips. However, most bettors are actually not profitable in the long run. This is partly caused by betting tipsters which don’t have a positive expected value. So it’s essential to be critical when choosing a betting service.
How can I find a good tipster? Below we’ll provide you with a number of criteria that have to be met by reliable betting tipsters.
Track record
One of the most important things a bettor should pay attention to when looking for a tipster is the track record. Although past results do not guarantee the same or better results in the future, they can give a clear picture of what a tipster is capable of.
Over a small sample size of bets, variance may have a dominating impact on a tipster’s results, both negative and positive. Due to this variance, anyone is capable of achieving great results in the short term due to luck. But a clueless tipster will run out of luck, sooner or later.
On the other hand, a good tipster distinguishes himself by making profit over a significant amount of bets in time. For example, if a tipster has managed to end up in profit for many consecutive months, while also giving a large amount of tips per month, this is a strong indicator that he knows a good deal about sport betting. A skilled tipster who knows where to find value in the betting market, will surely be profitable in the end.
Pinnacle’s closing line
When it comes to pre-match betting picks, which we provide here at Transparent Bets, the closing line of the most efficient bookmaker (Pinnacle) is a great
When it comes to pre-match betting picks, the closing line of the most efficient bookmaker (Pinnacle) is a great indicator of the real value of a pick.
Research has shown that Pinnacle’s vig-free odds (vig, short for vigorish, is what you pay for the bookmaker’s services) accurately predicted the real world outcome 99.7% of the time correctly for bigger competitions, which is something we elaborate further on in our article: how do bookmakers make profit?
A bookmaker calculates the odds of each outcome based on several statistical models related to the team’s performances in the past. When the market opens, players can bet on all kind of different outcomes. The bookmaker will the constantly adjust the odds to maintain a balanced book, based on the principle of wisdom of the crowd. The odd just before the start of a certain match is called the closing line and normally reflects all statistics and information. It reflects the most accurate representation of the underlying probability.
When a tipster is able to consistently beat the closing line of Pinnacle, this is a clear indicator of long term profit.
Guaranteed long-term profit
Now, if a betting tipster is able to beat the closing line of Pinnacle consistently, this is a clear indicator of long term profit. In this case, the bettor places bets at odds that don’t represent the real chance of a specific outcome accurately, but are actually in their favor.
Pinnacle’s closing line: the hoily grail?
Although the closing line of Pinnacle predicts the real world outcome of an event accurately most of the time, it isn’t the holy grail. Beating the closing line consistently will get you a solid profit in the long run. However, this doesn’t mean that a tipster cannot be profitable in the long run when he doesn’t beat the closing line significantly. The closing line contains the most efficient odds on average. There may be tipsters who are able to find some closing odds that might not represent the true probability. And use it in their and their subscriber’s favour.
Transparent Bets: trustworthy and valuable betting services
With the current situation of questionable betting tipsters and tipster services all around, we at Transparent Bets feel it is time to offer bettors a stable and trustworthy alternative. Therefore, we’ve come up with a professional and valuable betting service that actually does keep its promise and achieves to have a satisfied client base.
You might wonder why we would share our methods and bets when they are profitable. Why don’t we just keep them to ourselves? Read more about this topic in why we share our valuable methods.
We are confident to say that our service, in relation to the betting picks we provide to our customers, easily meets all the criteria mentioned in this article. Come and see for yourself!