The Fibonacci betting system (‘Fibonacci’) is not widely known across punters who wish to improve their winning chances. It’s a so-called negative progressive betting system that is best applicable to even odd bets in casino games
In this article we are going to explore a specific application of Fibonacci in-depth and check if it can improve your chances of winning in the case of sports betting. We will also assess the – many – risks involved.
The Fibonacci Betting System Explained
When using Fibonacci, we are dealing with a negative progression betting system that, if applied correctly, may return some nice profits. The specific application we are going to discuss here, was developed by Evan Osborne and Fragiskos Archontakis back in 2007. It proposes that punters should always bet on a draw for football matches. This system is based on an older theory that was developed in 1989 and it starts from the idea that a draw is one of the most difficult results for bookmakers to predict. This gives punters an edge as long as they stick to the principles of Fibonacci and steadily increase their stake with every bet placed.
The following two main rules apply:
- Only bet on draws with an odd of 2.6 or greater;
- No matter if the result of the previous bet was a win or a loss, keep increasing your stake following the Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34 and so on.
The main challenges here is making sure you have the funds to sustain the progressive increase of the stake, no matter if the result is positive or negative.
Fibonacci indicates that after the first two starting numbers, the following number is formed by adding the previous two. So, if you bet £10 on the first draw (at an odd of 2.6 or greater), no matter if you win or not, the next bet should also be £10. Then increase it to £20, after that bet £30 on the next draw and then continue with £50, £80, … and keep it up until you decide it is enough for your available bankroll.
Using the Fibonacci Betting System in Real Life
If we take a look at the Premier League 2011-2012 season, 93 out of the 380 matches played ended in a draw, approximately 24.5%. The average odds for a match ending as a draw for the entire season were around 4.2, which is greater than the 2.6 threshold.
Applying the sequence with the available Premier League data, we would get a win on average every four games. This means that the winning stake in our example would have been the fourth number in the Fibonacci sequence, number 3. The total of stakes placed until that point amounts to £7 (£1 + £1 + £2 + £3). So, for each £7 that you bet on a draw, you would have a return of £12.60 (£3 winning stake multiplied by the average odds of 4.2). The profit is then calculated by subtracting the stakes lost from the return of the winning bet on the draw: £12.60 -/- £7 = £5.60. Applying this to all the 380 games, you get a potential profit of £1786.70. If you started with a higher initial stake, profits increase accordingly.
Conclusions – Does the Fibonacci Betting System Work?
From a purely mathematical point of view, there is nothing stopping you from using Fibonacci to make a profit on the long term. However, chances are unpredictable…
For example, if you hit a longer streak without draws, you well may come to the point where it is no longer sustainable to place the next stake… bad luck. If this doesn’t happen and your bankroll is still big enough for applying Fibonacci, you may find that the bookmaker imposes a limit on how much you can bet on a single event. Bad luck again.
Bottom line: you may be lucky on the short term, but you will always lose in the long run. Fibonacci will not improve your chances of winning, as doesn’t any betting system: you simply can’t escape the laws of probability.