Single betting is by far the most profitable long-term way of betting in any sport with average odds ranging from 1.75 to 2.25. However, one needs a solid financial base or starting capital for investing within that type of system and great patience and discipline with the investment of money (bankroll management). On average, with single betting here at Transparent Bets, your starting bank is expected to double after circa five months of investing while long-term constant profit rises with an expected yield of 15 % in comparison to the starting bank. For this kind of betting, an individual needs to be a very sharp and precise forecaster of sport events.
What is more than necessary is vast mathematical knowledge to be able to find the value in odds. Value stands for an odd which is higher/lower than it should be offered by a certain bookmaker in a bettor’s opinion. As much as this is very difficult, it’s also a very satisfying job to do, knowing you will be making a very solid profit over time. And as far as the client is concerned, all he has to do is place the bets that have already been calculated by the experts here at Transparent Bets.
In this betting guide we will learn you why single betting is by far the most profitable type of betting.
How to profit from single betting?
Singles betting implies betting exclusively on one event. With an average odd of 2 and disregarding the bookmaker’s margin, mathematically it gives an individual chances of winning at 50:50. To make a good profit in this case, it is profitable to have an average win rate of more than 50%, breaking even at exactly 50%.
In our case, we can proudly say that we are way above this number year after year.
This means that the client has enough reason to expect a solid return on their investment in the future by subscribing and placing the suggested picks here at Transparent Bets.
Other types of betting, a bad idea
Now, we will expand this subject to explain how any other type of betting besides single betting is a bad idea in the long term. For example, betting doubles or accumulators in a parlay or system bet. For starters, the popular doubles betting includes two separate events in a single slip. Although it does hold the best mathematical value after single betting, it is long-term unprofitable.
Suppose we bet on two events from the same evening in the Champions League. Real Madrid and Barcelona are playing at home and we think both of them will win in regular time, so we advice to bet home team to win. The real mathematical reason why this kind of a combo is unaffordable is because there is no common variable that would somehow bind these two separate events together. They don’t in any way affect each other and there is no connection in Real and Barcelona winning their games on that same evening.
Accumulator bets are not profitable
Despite all of this, many bettors, mostly recreational and semipro, opt for accumulator bets very often. With even more than two events in a single slip this is purely fighting against windmills in the short term, let alone in the long term. The main reason for this type of betting is obviously that it is, mainly psychologically, considered by many to be by far the fastest way to winning a big amount of money. But ironically, the exact same psychological mechanism is what the bookmakers are counting on as it gives them an insurmountable advantage over any bettor.
In today’s world of betting even the sharpest of bettors need some help and assistance because they are not only fighting against bookmakers.
They are also fighting against mathematics and probability which can be calculated for any type of a combo bet very simply.
Let’s make this clear with an example
Here we’ll give an example to illustrate the principles mentioned above. Suppose we decided to bet on four separate events on one betslip with the following odds: 1.5, 2, 4 and 8. To get the exact probability in a percentage we have to be aware that each of the odds has its own inherent probability which we calculate by taking the number 1 and divide it by the odd (or 1/odd). This way, an odd of 2 gives a probability of ½ = 0.5 (just like flipping a coin) and an odd of 10 gives a probability of 1/10 = 0.1. Do note that we’re disregarding the bookmaker’s margin (also called vig or juice) for now, which is something we will dive into later.
Applying this calculation to all of the odds from our example, we will get (1/1.5), (1/2), (1/4) and (1/8) respectively. To calculate the probability of winning our parlay (the entire bet), we multiply all of the values to get the exact probability, which gives:
(1/1.5) * (1/2) * (1/4) * (1/8) = 0.014 or 1.14%
What this tell us is that we have only a 1.14% chance for our four-game parlay to be a winner. After all, all the games have to be won in order to win the bet. This can hopefully give you more of a clear idea of the probability of winning the tickets. Also, this is why bookmakers showing you pick slips. We hope you will understand now why bookmakers want you and everyone else to bet this way, it really is in their favor. Sure, it can be fun to make a accumulator every once in a while to spice things up a little. But on average, you will lose money. And lose it big.
In conclusion, one needs to differ two ways of betting. Betting as a profitable way of investing, which needs to performed at a professional level, while the other one is recreational and just for fun. We at Transparent Bets take betting more very seriously (it is our job). We have taken it to another level with our information, experience and mathematical knowledge. Now we want to help you earn money and finally beat the bookmakers as well.
Variance is part of the game
Finding value in sports betting